Table 2. Earthquake probabilities for faults within 50 km of Istanbul beginning May 2000. ‘Combined’ is the probability for the three faults. Quoted uncertainties are one standard deviation. ‘Background’ refers to renewal; ‘interaction’ includes renewal and interaction by stress transfer.
|
Fault |
30 Year (%) |
10 Year (%) |
1 Year (%) |
||||
|
Interaction |
Background |
Interaction |
Background |
Interaction |
Background |
||
|
Yalova |
33±21 |
22±18 |
14±11 |
7±7 |
1.7±1.7 |
0.8±0.8 |
|
|
Prince's Is. |
35±15 |
26±12 |
16±9 |
10±6 |
2.1±1.6 |
1.1±0.7 |
|
|
Marmara |
13±9 |
11±8 |
5±5 |
4±4 |
0.6±0.7 |
0.5±1.0 |
|
|
Combined |
62±15 |
49±15 |
32±12 |
20±9 |
4.4±2.4 |
2.3±1.5 |
|